Pollsters in developed countries

In light of the election results, NACTA head Vishnu Bisram said
“I feel vindicated that the results have borne out what the NACTA poll predicted.”
As they say, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.  Yes, they got the numbers right (if you stand on one leg, cock your head, and squint you can just [...]

NACTA vindicated?

While most polls showed the race to be between the PNM and COP, one polling outfit, NACTA showed it to be a PNM-UNC A race, with only marginal support for COP. For this, NACTA was attacked by COP, and claims were made of links between Vishnu Bisram of NACTA and Ramesh Maharaj of the [...]

Was there a plan?

I’m probably just a slave to tribalism and the cult of The Leader, but there’s a part of me that still believes that Bas must have had a plan, that there must be some reason (nefarious or otherwise) for his actions over the last couple years.  Why create a rump of a party?  Why drive [...]

Still 22%?

During the 1971 No-Vote campaign the PNM won all 36 seats and received about 22% of the eligible vote. That marks their core support - about 22% of the electorate. According to preliminary figures, the PNM received 236,420 votes out of an electorate of 990,352. In other words, 23.9% of the electorate.
Update: [...]

26-15-0

The PNM won the election, winning 26 of the 41 seats and 236,420 votes. The UNC A won 15 votes and received 103,247 votes. COP won no seats and received 119,007. About 56% of the electorate turned out. I estimated that the PNM received about 43% of the votes cast.
We’re basically [...]

Rationalising elections

I could say that the people didn’t act in their own best interests.  A UNC supporter could say that the COP supporter didn’t act strategically.  A PNM supporter could say…I don’t know, I suppose they could say “we win”.
Supporting a third party is always a risk.  Trying to get an electoral system to do something [...]

Defeat

Manning won re-election for the first time. Three-party elections don’t work in a two-party system. So what next? Five more years of PNM mismanagement, five more years of worsening crime.
This really sucks.
Update: I give up.  (My radio link went dead anyway). I’ll see what the final tally is in [...]

results - PARTIAL

Place

PNM

UNC

COP

Arima

 

 

Arouca/Maloney

 

 

Barataria/San Juan

5516

4308

3133

Caroni Central

 

 

 

Caroni East

3864

8297

4235

Chaguanas East

6817

3367

3053

Chaguanas West

1499

11461

5104

Couva North

1631

2391

1499

Couva South

2764

3101

1724

Cumuto/Manzanilla

6944

7226

3079

D’Abadie/O’Meara

 

 

 

Diego Martin Central

4228

270

2143

Diego Martin North

2773

231

1661

Diego Martin West

9221

513

5600

Fyzabad

6021

6298

3088

La Brea

 

 

 

La Horquetta/Talparo

 

 

 

Laventille East/Morvant

11072

1201

1529

Laventille West

10637

483

1085

Lopinot/Bon Air

8535

3907

3190

Mayaro

2263

3200

837

Naparima

 

 

 

Oropouche East

 

 

 

Oropouche West

 

 

 

Pointe a Pierre

1132

746

383

Point Fortin

4820

765

1241

Port of Spain North/St Ann’s West

8359

304

3445

Port of Spain South

 

 

Princes Town North

5298

8231

3824

Princes Town South/Tableland

747

863

167

San Fernando East

10324

1630

3884

San Fernando West

2402

732

1568

Siparia

1418

3047

903

St Ann’s East

2512

215

1093

St. Augustine

4362

4392

5035

St Joseph

 

 

 

Tabaquite

5412

7099

5687

Tobago East

8664

980

1205

Tobago West

5771

231

Toco Sangre Grande

9433

3864

3214

Tunapuna

8303

3967

3896

note: Tobago West DAC 2632 DNA 0
Tobago East [...]

Results start trickling in…

As the first results start to trickle in, it looks bad. While there are just a handful of polling stations, it seems to be PNM or UNC first, COP second. But it’s consistently behind, and well behind. None of the results mean anything at the constituency-level, but there’s enough there to see [...]

Discussing the polls

As I mentioned earlier, I am suspicious of opinion polls with respect to Trinidadian elections. But I am even more suspicious of political commentators. One of the few exceptions is political scientist and columnist Hamid Ghany. The one problem is that he is too much of an academic - when asked [...]