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No bump for Hillary among netroots

The netroots at dKos have never been big on Hillary Clinton. John Edwards has been consistently in the lead among the voters in Markos’ polls, going from 31% in October to 42% on January 24th. In the same time period Clinton’s support has moved from 9% in October to 9% on January 24th (hitting a high of 11% and a low of 6% in between). Barack Obama has gained the most ground, moving from 16% in October to 41% in the last poll.

With Edwards out of the race, the question is: where does his support go? The general response has been “I don’t know”. At least among the netroots (albeit, not a representative group), that support has gone to Obama. In the latest dKos poll, Obama jumped from 41% to 76%. Taking into account sampling effects, it looks like almost all of Edwards’ support has gone to Obama although “No F’ing Clue” may have picked up 10% of Edwards supporters, as it jumped from 2% to 6%, and “other” (Gravel?) jumped from 1 to 5%.

When Edwards withdrew, a lot of people were talking about the fact that much of his support came from people who chose not to support a woman or a black man. There was an implication that neither candidate provided a natural home for Edwards’ supporters. Others pointed out that Edwards did best among educated white men, not the populist-union base he courted most. But no one was talking about whether these were “progressives”. People tend to see progressives/liberals as young people, but dKos readership tends to skew close to 40. Are Edwards’ supporters on dKos characteristic of that group? It’s possible. I’m sure that professional pollsters are actively seeking the answer of how the Edwards vote will go. At the least, we’ll probably learn a lot on Tuesday.


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